Down trend detection ?
Author: zanek
Creation Date: 6/29/2009 10:58 AM
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zanek

#1
Does anyone know of any code or TA indicators that can somewhat accurately detect a down trend ?

My strategy I have now works ok, but the biggest problem I have is that it buys during downtrends which causes massive losses.

The problem is harder than I thought, because differentiating between a slight down turn (where it eventually swings back up) and a longer downturn is hard to discern programmatically (albeit I must say I am new to programming strategies )

Thanks
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Cone

#2
QUOTE:
The problem is harder than I thought
It's harder than almost everyone thinks - this question has been asked about 1,000 times here. You're probably on the right track buying after a pullback, but a "pullback" by definition should be in the overall context of a greater trend higher. It all depends on your time frame, risk tolerance, etc.

Keep it simple. If something is making new X-day lows, then perhaps your trend has changed and it's no longer a "pullback" - get out of the trade if that's what it is. Risk vs. reward.
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rjsquantbox

#3
Also, it never hurts to backtest any strategy that generates consistent losses *after* you reverse your entry strategy (i.e.
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instead of
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etc etc). Just because your strategy loses money doesn't mean it's a losing strategy. It's what you do with the information the market gives you and your model that makes you a great trader. Trade ideas and information... rather, trade up.

Here's a little quant circle wisecrack for ya... "A truly horrendous losing strategy is far more valuable than any winning one." Since pride isn't a factor here, reversing a bad strategy is as good as creating a good one from the get-go. That is, unless you went live with it before testing!
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DartboardTrader

#4
And there are many, many times where reversing a truly horrendous losing strategy creates another horrible losing strategy. Can two wrongs make a right? Yes, if you choose the right vehicle.

If one cannot detect a downtrend accurately, that does not translate into accurately detecting an uptrend either. Timeframe is also a significant factor, since what works in one timeframe may not work in another.
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Eugene

#5
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