Prepare your Dip Buyer?
Author: Cone
Creation Date: 4/1/2013 9:32 AM
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Cone

#1
I thought this script/chart provides an interesting perspective of the current market juncture. It's a chart of the maximum drawdowns by calendar year back to 1994. This year's peak to trough drawdown has been a mere 3.0% (so far) and you'd have to go back to 1995 to find something comparable. In fact, 1995's drawdown was the lowest back to at least 1970.

Just by the nature of the calendar year study, it's clear that the odds of a peak will occur in the months after January, but it's uncanny how often in recent years that the peak before the max DD occurs in the March-April timeframe. You know the adage, "Sell in May and go away."

Of course the peak might be higher this year, but even if it is, there's a pretty good chance that the current market levels will be revisted again later this year.



Here's the script study:
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Eugene

#2
Interesting read!