Dick Fabian's book Wealth Builder, Do the numbers add up????
Author: jahlbeck
Creation Date: 3/26/2010 12:24 PM
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jahlbeck

#1
I am trying to backtest the claims made in Dick Fabian's book, Wealth Builder, and am getting results that are radically different from what are on page 87 of his book.

His strategy is basically a buy above the 200 day SMA crossover and a sell below the 200 day SMA (at least that is how I understand it and how I have backtested it). He used a 39 week SMA and I think only traded once a week. He reports that $10,000 invested in 1926 through 1990 produced the following:

DJI
His strategy $1,588,382 8.24%
Buy and Hold $164,992 4.47%

DJT
His strategy $1,991,041 8.24%
Buy and Hold $74,713 4.47%

I have not been able to find data to exactly match his dates (DOW Jones Industrial and Dow Jones Transportation 1926-1990)but running numbers from 1928 to 1990 I show his startegy woefully underperforming ($47,406 vs.$103,032 on the DJI Index).

Dividends may be part of the explanation (I do not believe the data I have include dividends). My calculations indicate a 3.99% average annual return between 1928 and 1990 for the DJI. My data is downloaded from Yahoo.

I know that Dick Fabian, while alive, had a large following and may still. I know many believe his strategy is better than buy and hold. What is the truth?

Any suggestion on how to confirm who's numbers are accurate?