Datasource for Projected Future EPS
Author: tedclimo
Creation Date: 12/20/2011 9:25 AM
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tedclimo

#1
Fidelity.com has a stock screener with oodles of choices that I cannot find in Wealth-Lab’s historical back-testing ability (datasources) today.
Of Specific value, I’ve found the following seem most predictive of future price improvement going forward.
1) Zacks Investment Research Ratings (Buy, Hold, Sell).
2) EPS Growth (Projected This Year vs. Last Year). // no clue at this time if these would be Peeking
3) EPS Growth (Projected Next Year vs. This Year). // no clue at this time if these would be Peeking

Thanks in advance for wisdom you have on locating/accessing the aforementioned data among WLP's datasources.
T!

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Cone

#2
For Fidelity WLP customers, the first thing to do is to open the DataSource Manager > Update Data tab, and check all the Fidelity Providers that you want to use.

1) Select "Fidelity Analyst Ratings Data for Securities". For information about this, see p. 16 of the WLP Fundamental Data Guide (launch from Help menu). To use these data in a script, the best way is to let the Strategy Builder show you .. Conditions > Analyst Ratings

2, 3) Select "Fidelity Estimated Earnings Data for Securities". First, here's an example to calculate earnings growth to the present. That said, I wouldn't advocate using estimated earnings in a backtest, and here's why. If you use the example for FundamentalDatItems and replace the fundametal item with "estimated earnings", run it on IBM (all data), you'll get something like this in the debug window.

CODE:
Please log in to see this code.
Notice that the dates of these data occur at the end of each calendar quarter. Looking back, you can compare how the estimate coincided with the following earnings report. The problem is that the estimates for future quarters change almost continuously. So the values you see in the future today, may not be the values you see in the future tomorrow. Further, you have only a one-time snapshot of those in the past. So for me, these data are not useful for backtest.

Since it's not supported, you could create your own database of earnings estimates in order to tell which way the estimates are being adjusted. To me, that would provide perhaps a better indicate than looking at future snapshots that are changing. There must be some data provider out there that offers such a product.
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tedclimo

#3
Cone,
Thank you for your wisdom.
Disregard email I sent yesterday. After reading your post more carefully, it does address my request for method to include projected (consensus estimated earnings).